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December 26, 2003

New version of Long Bets up and running

Long Bets [ Welcome ] Put real money on your predictions. Want to bet someone you know about the future? do it here with lots of other famous people as well.

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December 22, 2003

The year end round-ups and some interesting 2004 predictions

courtesy of Paidcontent.org:


-- WSJ: Technological Lessons From 2003: "We were among the countless pundits who had concluded that the music industry was so blinkered and reactionary that it would be a long, long time before it accepted that the digital revolution was here to stay. It was a fair analysis at the time -- it just ignored the fact that online, 'a long, long time' can mean "a couple of
months."

-- CED Magazine: A 'One Size Does Not Fit All' Future: "The interactive future needs three important legs: compelling content that the consumer is excited about; an efficient marketing and distribution system to make consumers aware of their options; and an underlying platform that delivers on the promise. And all of these need to come together at a price point that rewards the participants for their contributions, and that the consumer
is willing to pay."

-- TheFeature: The Year Ahead in Mobile: 2003 turned out to not be so bad for the mobile industry, and things should carry on in 2004.

-- Textually.org: A Round-Up of Year in Mobile Sector: Anything and everything related to mobile lifestyle, in 2003.

ZDNet: My 2004 Wish-List for Microsoft: "Microsoft needs to do a better job of educating customers, lawmakers, and the public on what DRM means in the workplace. Redmond also needs to articulate a position on fair rights issues in entertainment and electronic media. What should consumers be able to do with the content they purchase? Microsoft has the opportunity to make things better for
consumers or worse, but seems to be doing nothing."

-- CBS Marketwatch: The Media People to Watch in 2004: Barry Diller and Steve Jobs, among others...

-- Newsknife: Newsknife Best News Sites of 2003: Major stories in 2003, top news sites, top war coverage etc...

-- OJR: A Look Back at 2003, and What's on the Horizon for the Online News Universe: Mark Glaser talks to various figureheads on 2003 and what lies ahead for 2004...

-- John Battelle: Thoughts on 2004: "Blog ecologies of like-minded folks will garner increasing cultural and social power...think professional verticals of finance, law, medicine, marketing. Folks who you never thought would ever blog will be coming online and claiming power. As a result, more blog ecologies will impose registration and/or subscription (the money kind, not the RSS kind...)."

-- Barry Parr: Predictions for 2004: Wishful thinking and common sense, together..."More online content will go behind subscription barriers. However, this will be the beginning of a death spiral for those sites. Eventually (after their current management is fired), they will be reborn as stripped-down, highly-automated free sites."

-- eMarketer: Let the Online Ad Times Roll (Again): "The 2003 bar tells the story of the comeback kid. It evokes the IAB's Cross Media Optimization Studies offering strong evidence on why advertisers should put 5%, 10%, 15% of their budgets online. Longtime acquaintances who were struggling are now inviting you to their holiday parties. You arrive five minutes early at a seminar on paid search, and it's standing room
only."

-- TV Week: Cable Put VOD, HD, DVR in the 2003 Mix: "VOD made the transition from a visionary technology to a bona fide business; the burst of new HDTV services from cable operators heralded the real beginning of the HD revolution; and DVR began the march into cable set-top boxes and homes."

-- IDC: Predictions for Asia in 2004: Digital media adoption, mobile revolution and online advertising will be big...

-- Ringtonia: Best Ringtone Apps in 2003: Why not?

-- CED Magazine: CED's Broadband 50

-- Hollywood Reporter: Spears Reigns Again On Internet

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December 12, 2003

My FIRE 2003 predictions

In the spring of 2003, I attended Mark Andersen's Future In Review Conference. There from on high, I made my FIRE 2003 Predictions. Am going back in 2004 to see how I am doing. These are 5 year predictions.

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December 03, 2003

BT is in the futures business

Here is a white paper that predicts the future through 2100 BT Exact > BT White papers. The timeline is funny.

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